Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Al Qaeda’s Plans Realized?

In October of 2006, I wrote an article about Al Qaeda’s seven step plan documenting their strategy designed to create an Islamic caliphate by 2020. (The whole article is here) This strategy as outlined in an article by Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein in the German periodical Der Speigel, was first implemented on September 11, 2001 with the attack on the World Trade Center. Mr. Hussein in known for his contacts with senior Al Qaeda leaders and his ability to have them be open with him. Therefore, he has some credibility on this subject.

Although, events have not played out exactly as Al Qaeda leaders predicted, the plan is reasonably on schedule. We have now arrived at the fourth phase. Mr. Hussein writes that, between 2010 and 2013, Al Qaeda will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping loss of the regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaeda."

As I have pointed out previously, the 9/11attack was a Saudi civil war being fought on American soil. The 9/11attack was designed to punish the US for its support of the hated Saudi regime and to draw the US into a prolonged Middle East war where they could be defeated. As one watches the events of the “Arab Spring” unfold, one can see Al Qaeda’s goal of the collapse of US supported Middle East authoritarian regimes being realized. While these regime changes are being accomplished by largely peaceful and secular uprisings and not through the leadership of Al Qaeda, the results are still the same.

Of the countries experiencing uprisings against authoritarian governments, Libya and Yemen have the greatest possibility of ending up in the chaos of failed states which will leave space for the strengthening of Al Qaeda. US administration leaders have expressed this concern. Senator John McCain also expressed concern following his visit to Libya in support of the rebel forces. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQM) are two of the strongest Al Qaeda “franchises”. Any outcome that provides them space to operate cannot be good news.

The US policy of supporting corrupt, authoritarian regimes in the name of regional stability may have short term appeal, but it has helped to create a vacuum in civil society. Now that these regimes are suddenly collapsing, Al Qaeda may be in a position to be more dangerous.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

The Al Jazeera Effect

As the wave of unrest which has pitted pro-democracy demonstrators against the entrenched autocrats that are common in the Middle East has spread across the region, the role of Al Jazeera in facilitating the uprisings is hard to overstate. Al Jazeera first appeared on the scene in 1996 when the Emir of Qatar founded a 24hr Arabic language news network to compete with the state controlled media. Until Al Jazeera arrived, citizens of countries in the Middle East received their news through state controlled media who restricted their coverage to talking heads who presented nothing controversial. Al Jazeera changed the game and rapidly became the most watched network in the region. In 2006 Al Jazeera English began broadcasting and is now widely available around the world except in the US. (US availability is restricted to Toledo, Ohio, Burlington, Vermont and Washington, DC.)

When the initial uprisings began in Tunisia, Al Jazeera was a little slow on the uptake, but once they realized the significance of the story they grabbed it and ran. Their impact was particularly important in Egypt where ordinary Egyptians were able to follow the demonstrations in real time and were inspired to join. The Mubarak regime rapidly realized that unfettered information was their worst enemy and attempted to shut Al Jazeera down. Al Jazeera responded by broadcasting satellite coordinates showing where to train your satellite in order to continue to receive the channel.

As the uprisings spread, the autocratic regimes severely restricted Al Jazeera’s coverage by shutting down it’s bureaus and arresting it’s correspondents. In Libya, Al Jazeera responded by asking ordinary citizens to send their pictures and stories which were then posted. They, thereby, created thousands of freelance amateur journalists. Since Al Jazeera was the only news agency with images, they took the unusual step of offering their images to other news agencies free of charge with the caveat that Al Jazeera received credit. (CNN declined the offer. They would rather have no images than Al Jazeera images.)

Their effective coverage of, not only the Middle East, but also of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, has produced demand for increased availability in the US. (President Obama used Al Jazeera to follow events in Egypt.) Al Jazeera is now in carriage discussions with Comcast Cable. The idea that Americans would have access to a network whose motto is “If it is newsworthy, it airs; whether it is Bush or bin Laden.” seems to have frightened some on the political right. At a recent conference at the National Press Club Cliff Kincaid of American Survival called for hearings by the Homeland Security Committee on the security risk of Al Jazeera’s expansion into American cable markets. Right wing blogger Pamela Geller called for Al Jazeera to be designated a terrorist organization.

When Al Jazeera English began broadcasting, Comcast, Dish Network and DirecTV had plans to carry the network. They changed their minds, however, when the Bush administration applied pressure. It is one thing for the US to support these undemocratic regimes, but is another thing altogether to imitate them.

(If would like to have access to Al Jazeera English go here.)

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Saturday, April 02, 2011

Mission Creep

As the Libyan uprising against the regime of Muammar Qaddafi enters its sixth week and the military intervention by the US and its allies enters its third week, the inevitable “mission creep” that is so typical of this kind of operation is becoming more and more evident. What started out as a peaceful uprising by the oppressed people of Libya has deteriorated into a brutal civil war between ragtag groups of armed young rebels against the largely mercenary army loyal to Qaddafi.
Responding to Qaddafi’s rants about massacring all who opposed him, the UN Security Council passed resolutions 1970 and 1973 authorizing, among other things, an arms embargo and a “no fly zone” and military action as necessary to enforce it. The language is pretty clear.
The UNSC “decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians”.
The UNSC authorizes Member States…to take all necessary measures to enforce compliance with the ban on flights”.
The “coalition of the willing”, however quickly realized that a “no fly zone” was not going to protect civilians and unilaterally declared a “no drive zone” that allowed them to attack Qaddafi’s tanks and vehicles. This step has also become problematic. Today a coalition aircraft mistakenly attacked rebel vehicles killing at least 7 rebel fighters. (All white pickup trucks look the same from the air) It is becoming clear that for coalition aircraft to effectively provide close air support to the rebels, ground observers are required. Although President Obama has said that he has no intention of putting “American boots on the ground”, he has already deployed CIA operatives to coordinate with the rebels and provide targeting information for allied aircraft. (Perhaps they are wearing Chinese sandals.)
Discussion has now begun about the wisdom of arming and resupplying the rebel forces. The language of UNSC Res. 1970 clearly bans such action. The language here is also straight forward.
The UNSC “decides that all Member States shall immediately take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, from or through their territories or by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, of arms and related materiel of all types…”
Any violation of this prohibition by the US and its allies would fracture the alliance and make the military mission a US and European action.
What few have acknowledged is that in order to protect civilians Qaddafi must go. President Obama has specifically ruled out regime change and overthrowing the regime by force. The only way out of this morass is a political solution in which Qaddafi and his cronies choose to leave. Hopefully it happens sooner rather than later.
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